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"fx_open_max_6h_weekend_friday_close", "session_status": "open", "freshness_deadline": "2026-08-19T19:30:47.000Z", "last_attempt_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.379Z", "last_successful_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.379Z", "degraded_reason": null }, { "id": "jquants_topix", "name": "J-Quants TOPIX daily bars", "status": "fresh", "type": "market_cache", "required": true, "provider": "jquants", "authority": "official_registry", "expected_update_interval_hours": null, "observed_at": "2026-08-18T15:00:00.000Z", "age_hours": 22.5, "stale": false, "degraded": false, "last_good_retained": false, "freshness": "2026-08-18T15:00:00.000Z", "freshness_policy": "jp_trading_day_aware", "session_status": "business_day", "freshness_deadline": null, "last_attempt_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.719Z", "last_successful_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.719Z", "degraded_reason": null }, { "id": "official_event_verifications", "name": "Official event verification overlay", "status": "reference", "type": "official_verification_cache", "required": false, "provider": "official-publishers", "authority": "official_publisher", "expected_update_interval_hours": null, "observed_at": null, "age_hours": null, "stale": false, "degraded": false, "last_good_retained": false, "freshness": "unavailable", "freshness_policy": "reference", "session_status": "not_applicable", "freshness_deadline": null, "last_attempt_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.682Z", "last_successful_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.682Z", "degraded_reason": null } ] }, "current_weather": { "weather": "volatile", "label": "Volatile", "label_ja": "荒れやすい", "score": 69, "raw_score": 77, "display_score": 69, "score_kind": "heuristic_score", "raw_weather": "event_storm", "display_weather": "volatile", "confidence_adjustment": { "applied": false, "reason": "classification, source, and timing evidence are operationally eligible" }, "time_window": "active_72h", "basis_event_id": "jp-japan-cpi-2026-07-release-aada835d47f8-headline_yoy", "basis_cluster_id": "jp-japan-cpi-2026-07-release-aada835d47f8", "next_event_id": "us-initial-jobless-claims-2026-08-release-33e56f2ab09e-initial_claims", "short_explanation": "Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) is operationally active inside 72h.", "active_drivers": [ "BOJ policy watch", "Japan rates", "VIX / equities" ], "market_stress_evidence": [ "US 10Y pressure 85", "TOPIX stress 82" ], "what_changed": "Current weather excludes forward-calendar, stale, degraded, and needs-classification observations.", "what_to_watch": [ "release time", "headline surprise", "yield reaction", "USDJPY volatility" ] }, "summary": { "event_risk_24h": "Watch", "volatility_pressure_72h": "High", "next_key_event": "Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/15)", "next_key_event_id": "us-initial-jobless-claims-2026-08-release-33e56f2ab09e-initial_claims", "next_key_event_at": "2026-08-20T21:30:00+09:00", "next_key_event_date_confidence": "provider_reported_datetime", "next_key_cluster_id": "us-initial-jobless-claims-2026-08-release-33e56f2ab09e", "next_key_component_count": 1, "next_catalyst": "Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jul)", "next_catalyst_id": "us-pce-2026-07-release-fe45760ecc65-core_mom", "next_catalyst_at": "2026-08-26T21:30:00+09:00", "next_catalyst_cluster_id": "us-pce-2026-07-release-fe45760ecc65", "next_catalyst_component_count": 4, "current_driver": "BOJ policy watch / Japan rates / VIX / equities", "material_pressure_label": "Elevated", "macro_pressure_score": 71, "cross_asset_stress_score": 70, "operational_queue_count": 9, "forward_calendar_count": 96 }, "scope_summary": { "operational_count": 124, "reference_count": 148, "needs_classification_count": 103, "out_of_scope_count": 330, "invalid_count": 0, "top_out_of_scope_reasons": [ { "status": "out_of_scope", "reason": "out_of_scope_energy_inventory", "count": 110 }, { "status": "out_of_scope", "reason": "out_of_scope_government_auction", "count": 82 }, { "status": "out_of_scope", "reason": 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"scheduled_at_history": [], "schedule_revision": 0, "official_window": null, "provider_event_id": "fmp:release:1d1d4d7d0d794cbb", "provider_release_id": "fmp:release:1d1d4d7d0d794cbb", "provider_observation_id": "fmp:observation:0769bd5bd951f675", "provider_observation_key": "fmp:series:no-release:us:external-balance:export-prices-mom:external-balance-export-prices-mom:2026-07", "series_signature": "external-balance:export_prices_mom", "audit_observation_id": "fmp:observation:0769bd5bd951f675", "provider_event_name": "Export Prices MoM (Jul)", "provider_country": "US", "provider_currency": "USD", "name": "Export Prices MoM (Jul)", "country": "US", "region": "US", "pair": "USDJPY", "importance": "medium", "date_confidence": "provider_reported_datetime", "expected_usdjpy_relevance": "Export Prices MoM (Jul) is retained as provider-reported USDJPY volatility context.", "watch_points": [ "release time", "headline surprise", "yield reaction", "USDJPY volatility" ], "source_confidence": 78, "source_type": "aggregator", "source_label": "Financial Modeling Prep", "source_url": "https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar", "source": { "provider": "fmp", "authority": "aggregator", "publisher": "Financial Modeling Prep", "url": "https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar" }, "time_evidence": { "precision": "provider_reported", "timezone": "America/New_York", "note": "Timestamp reported by FMP and converted to JST; official publisher verification is not implied." }, "verification": { "status": "provider_reported", "verified_against": null, "verified_at": null, "checked_at": null, "expires_at": null, "retrieval_content_hash": null, "parsed_evidence_hash": null, "degraded": false, "degraded_reason": null, "note": "Aggregator-reported observation." }, "classification": { "status": "classified", "rule": "external_balance_reference", "expected_country": null, "allowed_countries": [ "US", "JP" ], "reason": 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"08:30 AM EDT", "timing_note": null, "matched_provider_event_ids": [] }, { "id": "us-external-balance-2026-07-release-b1815ef0675b-import_prices_yoy", "canonical_event_id": "us-external-balance-2026-07-release-b1815ef0675b-import_prices_yoy", "event_cluster_id": "us-external-balance-2026-07-release-b1815ef0675b", "event_family": "external-balance", "event_type": "activity", "component": "import_prices_yoy", "reference_period": "2026-07", "occurrence_key": "2026-07-release-b1815ef0675b", "scheduled_at": "2026-08-18T21:30:00+09:00", "previous_scheduled_at": null, "scheduled_at_history": [], "schedule_revision": 0, "official_window": null, "provider_event_id": "fmp:release:1d1d4d7d0d794cbb", "provider_release_id": "fmp:release:1d1d4d7d0d794cbb", "provider_observation_id": "fmp:observation:bae1ed0ed20fcf07", "provider_observation_key": "fmp:series:no-release:us:external-balance:import-prices-yoy:external-balance-import-prices-yoy:2026-07", "series_signature": 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"provider_reported", "timezone": "America/New_York", "note": "Timestamp reported by FMP and converted to JST; official publisher verification is not implied." }, "verification": { "status": "provider_reported", "verified_against": null, "verified_at": null, "checked_at": null, "expires_at": null, "retrieval_content_hash": null, "parsed_evidence_hash": null, "degraded": false, "degraded_reason": null, "note": "Aggregator-reported observation." }, "classification": { "status": "classified", "rule": "external_balance_reference", "expected_country": null, "allowed_countries": [ "US", "JP" ], "reason": "country_integrity_confirmed" }, "scope": { "reason": "selected_usdjpy_reference_context", "rule": "reference_event_family_or_component", "status": "reference" }, "freshness_status": "fresh", "operational_eligible": false, "score_kind": "heuristic_score", "raw_score": 28, "display_score": 28, "raw_weather": "watch", "display_weather": "watch", "display_weather_label": "Watch", 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"us-unclassified-event-68507437-2026-08-release-365f17c30e87-unknown", "us-unclassified-event-846df026-2026-08-release-365f17c30e87-unknown" ], "needs_reverification": [], "stale_observations": [], "archived": [] }, "materials": [ { "id": "us-yields", "name": "US 10Y yield", "pair": "USDJPY", "pressure_level": "high", "pressure_score": 85, "why_it_matters": "Rate sensitivity is the main channel connecting US macro releases to USDJPY volatility.", "latest_observation": "FMP-derived US yield pressure is high; raw rates are withheld by the data-rights policy.", "source_type": "aggregator_observation", "source_label": "FMP treasury-rates", "observed_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z", "freshness_status": "fresh" }, { "id": "fed-path", "name": "Fed path repricing", "pair": "USDJPY", "pressure_level": "elevated", "pressure_score": 78, "why_it_matters": "Policy-rate expectations shape dollar rate support and event reaction persistence.", "latest_observation": "FMP-derived curve context is available; raw rates are withheld by the data-rights policy.", "source_type": "aggregator_observation", "source_label": "FMP treasury-rates", "observed_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z", "freshness_status": "fresh" }, { "id": "boj-policy", "name": "BOJ policy watch", "pair": "USDJPY", "pressure_level": "watch", "pressure_score": 64, "why_it_matters": "BOJ communication can change yen rate sensitivity even when US events dominate.", "latest_observation": "Official BOJ schedule is retained as seed context.", "source_type": "official_calendar", "source_label": null, "observed_at": null, "freshness_status": "reference" }, { "id": "japan-rates", "name": "Japan rates", "pair": "USDJPY", "pressure_level": "watch", "pressure_score": 58, "why_it_matters": "JGB reaction helps separate yen-specific pressure from broad dollar moves.", "latest_observation": "Seed baseline; no current JGB observation is claimed.", "source_type": "seed_baseline", "source_label": null, "observed_at": null, "freshness_status": "reference" }, { "id": "dxy", "name": "DXY", "pair": "USDJPY", "pressure_level": "elevated", "pressure_score": 72, "why_it_matters": "Broad dollar confirmation can show whether USDJPY movement is pair-specific or dollar-wide.", "latest_observation": "Seed baseline; no current DXY observation is claimed.", "source_type": "seed_baseline", "source_label": null, "observed_at": null, "freshness_status": "reference" }, { "id": "risk-sentiment", "name": "VIX / equities", "pair": "USDJPY", "pressure_level": "high", "pressure_score": 82, "why_it_matters": "Risk tone can amplify or absorb event-driven FX moves.", "latest_observation": "J-Quants-derived TOPIX stress is high; raw index values are withheld by the data-rights policy.", "source_type": "official_registry_observation", "source_label": "J-Quants TOPIX daily bars", "observed_at": "2026-08-18T15:00:00.000Z", "freshness_status": "fresh" }, { "id": "energy-inflation", "name": "Energy / inflation pressure", "pair": "USDJPY", "pressure_level": "watch", "pressure_score": 57, "why_it_matters": "Energy and inflation inputs can affect rate expectations around CPI and PCE events.", "latest_observation": "Seed baseline supporting inflation-sensitive releases.", "source_type": "seed_baseline", "source_label": null, "observed_at": null, "freshness_status": "reference" } ], "scenarios": [ { "id": "stronger-than-expected", "label_ja": "上振れ時に見るもの", "condition": "If US employment or inflation is stronger than expected", "watch": [ "US yields", "Fed path repricing", "DXY confirmation", "equity response" ] }, { "id": "weaker-than-expected", "label_ja": "下振れ時に見るもの", "condition": "If US data is weaker than expected", "watch": [ "rate-cut expectations", "US 10Y yield", "yen reaction", "risk sentiment" ] }, { "id": "near-consensus", "label_ja": "予想通りだった場合に見るもの", "condition": "If data is close to consensus", "watch": [ "prior revisions", "wage growth", "press commentary", "cross-asset confirmation" ] }, { "id": "boj-watch", "label_ja": "日銀警戒が強まった場合に見るもの", "condition": "If BOJ policy watch intensifies", "watch": [ "JGB yield reaction", "Japan CPI details", "governor commentary", "yen cross confirmation" ] } ], "endpoints": [ { "path": "/agent.json", "description": "RASK agent guide, boundaries, tool contracts, and read order." }, { "path": "/.well-known/signal-radar.json", "description": "RASK Signal Radar discovery and endpoint map." }, { "path": "/.well-known/agent-gateway.json", "description": "Static same-origin Agent Gateway manifest." }, { "path": "/data/v1/latest.json", "description": "Current-time FX event weather snapshot." }, { "path": "/data/v1/priority-queue.json", "description": "Operational queue separated from the forward calendar." }, { "path": "/data/v1/diff/latest.json", "description": "Diff against the prior published release." }, { "path": "/data/v1/archive/index.json", "description": "Bounded semantic release archive." }, { "path": "/data/v1/release-manifest.json", "description": "Logical release, exact build, Git SHA, payload hash, and byte manifest." }, { "path": "/data/v1/source-health.json", "description": "RASK-normalized public source health." }, { "path": "/data/v1/schema.json", "description": "Strict JSON Schema contracts." }, { "path": "/.well-known/agent-policy.json", "description": "Read-only RASK agent policy." }, { "path": "/data/v1/agent-index.json", "description": "RASK endpoint and WebMCP tool index." }, { "path": "/data/v1/public-safety.json", "description": "RASK public safety contract." }, { "path": "/data/v1/agent-routes.json", "description": "Static Agent Gateway route index." }, { "path": "/agent/page/home.md", "description": "Static Agent Gateway home surface." }, { "path": "/llms.txt", "description": "Compact LLM usage guide." } ], "source_health": [ { "id": "seed_event_calendar", "name": "Immutable seed event calendar", "status": "reference", "type": "seed_reference", "required": false, "provider": "seed", "authority": "curated_seed", "expected_update_interval_hours": null, "observed_at": "2026-06-30T15:00:00.000Z", "age_hours": 1198.5, "stale": false, "degraded": false, "last_good_retained": false, "freshness": "2026-06-30T15:00:00.000Z", "freshness_policy": "reference", "session_status": "not_applicable", "freshness_deadline": null, "last_attempt_at": null, "last_successful_at": null, "degraded_reason": null }, { "id": "fmp_economic_calendar", "name": "FMP economic calendar", "status": "fresh", "type": "calendar_cache", "required": true, "provider": "fmp", "authority": "aggregator", "expected_update_interval_hours": 36, "observed_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.617Z", "age_hours": 0, "stale": false, "degraded": false, "last_good_retained": false, "freshness": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.617Z", "freshness_policy": "fixed_interval", "session_status": "not_applicable", "freshness_deadline": null, "last_attempt_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.617Z", "last_successful_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.617Z", "degraded_reason": null }, { "id": "fmp_us_treasury", "name": "FMP US Treasury rates", "status": "fresh", "type": "market_cache", "required": true, "provider": "fmp", "authority": "aggregator", "expected_update_interval_hours": null, "observed_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z", "age_hours": 37.5, "stale": false, "degraded": false, "last_good_retained": false, "freshness": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z", "freshness_policy": "us_business_day_aware", "session_status": "business_day", "freshness_deadline": null, "last_attempt_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.379Z", "last_successful_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.379Z", "degraded_reason": null }, { "id": "fmp_fx_usdjpy", "name": "FMP USDJPY quote", "status": "fresh", "type": "market_cache", "required": true, "provider": "fmp", "authority": "aggregator", "expected_update_interval_hours": 6, "observed_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.000Z", "age_hours": 0, "stale": false, "degraded": false, "last_good_retained": false, "freshness": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.000Z", "freshness_policy": "fx_open_max_6h_weekend_friday_close", "session_status": "open", "freshness_deadline": "2026-08-19T19:30:47.000Z", "last_attempt_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.379Z", "last_successful_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.379Z", "degraded_reason": null }, { "id": "jquants_topix", "name": "J-Quants TOPIX daily bars", "status": "fresh", "type": "market_cache", "required": true, "provider": "jquants", "authority": "official_registry", "expected_update_interval_hours": null, "observed_at": "2026-08-18T15:00:00.000Z", "age_hours": 22.5, "stale": false, "degraded": false, "last_good_retained": false, "freshness": "2026-08-18T15:00:00.000Z", "freshness_policy": "jp_trading_day_aware", "session_status": "business_day", "freshness_deadline": null, "last_attempt_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.719Z", "last_successful_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.719Z", "degraded_reason": null }, { "id": "official_event_verifications", "name": "Official event verification overlay", "status": "reference", "type": "official_verification_cache", "required": false, "provider": "official-publishers", "authority": "official_publisher", "expected_update_interval_hours": null, "observed_at": null, "age_hours": null, "stale": false, "degraded": false, "last_good_retained": false, "freshness": "unavailable", "freshness_policy": "reference", "session_status": "not_applicable", "freshness_deadline": null, "last_attempt_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.682Z", "last_successful_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:48.682Z", "degraded_reason": null } ], "calendar_cache": { "mode": "provider_normalized_cache", "source": { "provider": "fmp", "authority": "aggregator", "publisher": "Financial Modeling Prep", "url": "https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar" }, "observed_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.617Z", "from": "2026-08-18", "to": "2026-10-18", "event_count": 696, "raw_row_count": 2845, "eligible_country_row_count": 705, "operational_count": 124, "reference_count": 148, "classified_count": 602, "needs_classification_count": 103, "out_of_scope_count": 330, "invalid_row_count": 0, "unsupported_country_count": 2140, "silently_dropped_count": 0, "classification_reason_counts": { "ambiguous_tankan": 6, "out_of_scope_capital_flow": 15, "out_of_scope_central_bank_balance_sheet": 16, "out_of_scope_energy_inventory": 110, "out_of_scope_government_auction": 82, "out_of_scope_housing": 27, "out_of_scope_inventory": 6, "out_of_scope_mortgage_series": 36, "out_of_scope_regional_activity": 38, "selected_usdjpy_operational_event": 124, "selected_usdjpy_reference_context": 148, "unrecognized_provider_event": 97, "unsupported_or_missing_provider_country": 2140 }, "scope_reason_counts": { "needs_classification:ambiguous_tankan": 6, "needs_classification:unrecognized_provider_event": 97, "operational:selected_usdjpy_operational_event": 124, "out_of_scope:out_of_scope_capital_flow": 15, "out_of_scope:out_of_scope_central_bank_balance_sheet": 16, "out_of_scope:out_of_scope_energy_inventory": 110, "out_of_scope:out_of_scope_government_auction": 82, "out_of_scope:out_of_scope_housing": 27, "out_of_scope:out_of_scope_inventory": 6, "out_of_scope:out_of_scope_mortgage_series": 36, "out_of_scope:out_of_scope_regional_activity": 38, "reference:selected_usdjpy_reference_context": 148 }, "country_timezone_mismatch_count": 0, "provider_country_conflict_count": 0, "audit_observation_count": 705, "duplicate_provider_release_id_count": 349, "duplicate_provider_observation_id_count": 0, "collapsed_distinct_series_count": 0, "degraded": false, "stale": false }, "market_snapshot": { "mode": "provider_normalized_cache", "observed_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.000Z", "degraded": false, "stale": false, "rights_mode": "derived_only", "sources": [ { "provider": "fmp", "authority": "aggregator", "publisher": "Financial Modeling Prep", "dataset": "treasury-rates", "url": "https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/treasury-rates" }, { "provider": "fmp", "authority": "aggregator", "publisher": "Financial Modeling Prep", "dataset": "forex-quote", "url": "https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/forex-quote" } ], "pressure": { "us_yields": { "category": "high", "score": 85, "freshness_status": "fresh", "observed_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z" }, "fx_usdjpy": { "category": "observed", "score": null, "freshness_status": "fresh", "observed_at": "2026-08-19T13:30:47.000Z" }, "japan_risk": { "category": "high", "score": 82, "freshness_status": "fresh", "observed_at": "2026-08-18T15:00:00.000Z" } }, "safety": { "observation_only": true, "not_a_trade_signal": true, "no_directional_call": true } }, "safety": { "not_a_trade_signal": true, "no_buy_sell_direction": true, "human_review_required_before_public_launch": true, "auto_trading_allowed": false }, "build_id": "fxb-f99724fc5f5268836508cf23" }